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Seeing through the fog

Opportunities and risks in uncertain times

Despite geopolitical unrest, the outlook for economic growth and corporate earnings remains positive. Investors would do well to see through the current ‘fog’. There is ample reason to enter the second half of this investment year with cautious optimism.

Investment Strategy articles

The Big Picture: Seeing through the fog

Investment Strategy

04/06/2026

Geopolitical tensions have left their mark on financial markets in recent months. But the economic and corporate outlook is not unfavourable. Investors would do well to look beyond the current ‘fog.’ There is ample reason to look ahead to the second half of this year with cautious optimism.

Opportunities: About investments, AI, and gold

Investment Strategy

04/06/2026

Investing means seeing through the ‘fog’ of the moment – without being blind to the risks. That is why we opt for a balanced portfolio positioning. Within equities, we mainly see opportunities in sectors where vast investments are being made. We also see opportunities in gold, especially in a time when diversification has become more difficult.

Challenges: What if the fog gets thicker?

Investment Strategy

04/06/2026

Investing means seeing beyond the ‘fog’ of the moment. But we are living in uncertain times. When uncertainty increases, the fog effectively becomes thicker, and the economic weather outlook may become less favourable.

Disruptors: Europe on its own feet

Investment Strategy

04/06/2026

As globalisation retreats and geopolitical tensions reshape the global order, Europe is being forced to rethink its reliance on others for defence, energy and digital infrastructure. The push to reduce dependencies in these areas is now shaping policy priorities and probably long term investment trends.

“The world economy is growing and expectations for earnings growth are strong. But the situation in the Middle East remains hard to assess. This calls for a balanced positioning in equities.”

Erik Joly – Chief Investment Officer ABN AMRO MeesPierson Belgium

Outlook Market Comments

How geopolitical events and energy prices shape currency markets

Market comment

28/05/2026 • Georgette Boele

When the conflict in Iran began, the US dollar became stronger against most major currencies. The US economy is seen as largely insulated from the conflict due to its geographical distance, and it may even benefit from higher oil prices being a net exporter. Since then, currency markets have reacted erratically to news about the conflict. Now that attacks have been reduced and talks of a deal come and go, there is less clear direction in the currency markets.

Gold still attractive in an uncertain world

Market comment

22/05/2026 • Jan Wirken

Gold has had a very volatile start of 2026. Prices rose sharply and then fell just as strongly. In the short term, the gold price is mainly influenced by interest rates, movements in the US dollar and news about global conflicts. However, the main reasons why gold has risen in recent years, including geopolitical tensions, rising government debt and continued demand from central banks, are still present. For the rest of 2026, we therefore expect a period of consolidation first, followed by opportunities for further gains.

Higher oil prices as geopolitical risks persist

Market comment

08/05/2026 • Jan Wirken

What was expected to be a year defined by ample oil supply has changed quickly. Supply disruptions in the Middle East have tightened the market and pushed prices higher.

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